A promise is one thing, fulfillment is another!
The promise was born not in ministerial offices, but on the streets: in February 2019, it was supported by 1.7 million Bavarians—18.3 percent of all eligible voters in the state—making the “Save the Bees!” popular initiative the most successful in Bavaria’s history. Six years later, statistics show the exact opposite of what was promised: instead of rapid growth, the industry is stagnating.
Figures Far from the Plan
According to a fresh monitoring report obtained by the editorial office, only 14 percent of agricultural land in Bavaria was allocated to organic farming in 2025—almost half the target set for that same year. The problem is not new: in 2019, when the law was just entering into force, the share stood at 11 percent, and by 2024 it had risen to only 13.8 percent. Over six years, the increase barely exceeded 3 percentage points, even though to reach 30 percent by 2030, the rate of expansion would have to double year after year.
Key indicators for 2025:
- share of organic areas — 14% (an increase of just 0.3 percentage points over the year);
- number of farms under an ecological control contract — around 11.6 thousand;
- reduction in the number of such farms over the year — by 231;
- annual funding for the sector from Bavaria — approximately 120 million euros.
Growth has practically ground to a halt, and the number of certified farms has even declined—for the first time in a long while, the industry is showing a setback rather than a slowdown.
Why the Target Is Deemed Unattainable
The representative of the popular referendum, head of the Bavarian branch of the ÖDP party Agnes Becker, sharply criticized the results. According to her, what occurred is a failure of the state government and the Minister of Agriculture personally. Becker is confident that the 30 percent target by 2030 is now unattainable in principle, and demands that the department introduce a mandatory quota for organic food in the catering sector, alongside fulfilling the requirement—already in effect since 2020—for 30 percent organic production on state-owned land.
Bavarian Minister of Food, Agriculture and Forestry Michaela Kaniber (CSU) explains the situation by the difficult operating conditions in the sector. According to her, new farms did enter organic farming in 2025, but at the same time other farms left the system—they were unable to meet the requirement for mandatory livestock grazing. The European Union is increasingly insisting that dairy farms keep animals on pastures, and holdings that do not comply with this rule lose their organic certification.
Idea Not Yet Abandoned
The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes that the course toward 30 percent by 2030 remains in effect—this figure is enshrined in the Bavarian Nature Conservation Act, and there are no grounds to change the wording. The department adds that organic farming needs stability, not a retreat from plans.
Becker is skeptical of these assurances. She does not believe that the authorities possess the real political will to change the state of affairs. In her view, an effective tool could be a mandatory share of organic products in the public catering system—canteens, kindergartens, hospitals, and university cafes, where around 1.8 million meals are served daily. Such a quota has long been demanded by the Green Party and several producer associations. So far, the state government’s only concrete commitment is a 2020 decision for a minimum 50 percent share of regional and organic products in state-run canteens; however, the regional origin of a product does not in itself increase the area under organic cultivation.
Demand for Organics Grows, But Production Does Not
Kaniber has consistently rejected a mandatory quota for all canteens, although the state itself sets an example: regional and organic products are actively used in state catering institutions. The minister’s argument remains the same—production cannot grow without demand. Previously, in an interview with the editorial office, she noted that organics only work when they are bought, and that politicians can create incentives but are powerless to force consumers to choose specific goods at the checkout—the decision always rests with the buyer.
However, this argument carries less weight today. Demand for organic products in Germany is at an all-time high: in 2025 alone, revenue from the sale of organic food and beverages in the country grew by 6.7 percent. The problem lies elsewhere—the area under organic farming within the country is hardly expanding, and the growing demand is increasingly met through imports.
Six years after the most successful popular referendum in Bavarian history, political declarations and agricultural reality are moving at different paces. The law formally remains in force, funding continues to flow, and the 30 percent target is still written into the state’s legislation. But the arithmetic of recent years—from 11 percent in 2019 to 14 percent in 2025—speaks for itself: at the current pace, Bavaria will approach 2030 at only the 16–17 percent mark, half of the stated goal.
On the other hand, what exactly is organic farming? Scientists have long debunked this populist term, given that all agriculture is inherently organic; no one manufactures food products from inorganic matter. Furthermore, the use of ordinary manure instead of fertilizers offers no guarantee that harmful or toxic substances, such as ammonia—which are naturally present in it—will not exceed the levels found in chemical fertilizers. A professional agronomist can easily calculate the precise amount of fertilizer required to grow safe produce. In the case of manure and other types of “organic” fertilizers, calculating the threshold for harmful substances is virtually impossible.
Based on materials from the Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper.
